I think AI is going to hit the Trough of Disillusionment next year. 😳

It’s part of the Gartner Hype Cycle. You’ll likely find people saying:
→ It hasn’t solved world peace yet 😉
→ I thought it would be more revolutionary
→ It hasn’t lived up to the hype

But those who stick with it are going to reap the rewards. Years from now, those who throw in the towel will wish they stuck with it as it reaches the final stages of the cycle.

Here’s how the Hype Cycle works:

1. INNOVATION TRIGGER
An initial breakthrough sparks interest. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger a lot of public interest. Often there's no usable product, and commercial viability is unproven.

2. PEAK OF INFLATED EXPECTATIONS
Early publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action - many do not.

3. TROUGH OF DISILLUSIONMENT
Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.

(I think this is where the frustration will hit)

4. SLOPE OF ENLIGHTENMENT
More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to emerge and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots. Conservative companies still remain cautious.

5. PLEATEAU OF PRODUCTIVITY
Mainstream adoption starts to take off. The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off. If the technology has proven its value, it becomes increasingly stable and evolves in the second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

Technology goes through these cycles so there’s no need for surprise when they do.

What do you think?

What stage do you think we’re at?

Get in touch to find out how I can help.